Russian artillery production to outmatch all of EU by 30% next year, Ukrainian intelligence says

Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all EU member states combined next year, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said at a press conference in Kyiv on Nov. 9.
“According to Ukrainian intelligence, using the information we have, if there is no proper response or prevention, Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all countries of the European Union combined,” he said in comments reported by Ukrinform.
Sybiha called for international action to constrain Russia’s industrial capacity.
“First of all, here I am referring to the shadow fleet, which helps Russia circumvent sanctions and continue to trade energy resources, oil. It is very important that the further strengthening of the EU’s sanctions policy of our allies focus on this aspect,” he said.
An ammunition shortage has long been a cause for concern in Ukraine but has escalated this year. The EU failed to deliver on its promise to produce 1 million artillery shells between March 2023 and 2024 while disputes in Washington led to a severe delay in a $61 billion aid package.
Several countries have backed a Czech-led initiative to procure 800,000 shells for Ukraine proposed in February this year. In March, the EU allocated 500 million euros ($544 million) to bolster the EU’s ammunition production capacity to 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025.
Ukraine has long tried to ramp up its own domestic ammunition production to become more independent from Western partners.
In the summer of 2023, Ukroboronprom said that it had already mastered the production of 82 mm mortar mines, 122 mm, and 152 mm artillery rounds, as well as 125 mm tank shells.
Earlier media reports cited Ukrainian officials hoping to begin producing “desperately needed” NATO-standard 155 mm artillery rounds in the ‘second half’ of 2024 at the earliest.
Despite domestic efforts, the Ukrainian army still mainly depends on supplying 155 mm shells from partners, as European countries join forces to buy the rounds outside Europe.
The U.S. also opened a new factory last May to produce 155 mm munitions for Ukraine and significantly increased production in some existing factories.